大魔的财富之路

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Ironclad evidence: The new Federal Reserve Chair takes office = market plunge Look closely. Whenever a new Federal Reserve Chair takes over, the market falls into a major correction (sharp drop): Yellen took office: market crashed. Powell took office: the same script played out, twice. This scenario has happened 3 times in a row. Now, everyone is closely watching the name "Kevin Warsh." The key point is, almost no one is pricing in this risk currently. From 2014 → 2018 → 2022 → and now 2026 If history repeats itself, the next big drop will be no coincidence. $BTC #加息重回讨论桌：沃什就任，年底加息正式定价

All are supporting roles $BTC

1. First, let's talk about the reason for the crash. BTC plummeted in the early hours today, and what happened at that time? That's right, the new Fed Chair Kevin Walsh took office! So the question is, will it keep falling? 2. I think the probability is high! Because Bitcoin has now broken the key support at 76,000, below which is basically a vacuum zone, with clear support only at 72,000, where a strong rebound is expected. 3. So my current strategy is to short on rallies; any significant rebound is a shorting opportunity. I'm particularly watching the 75,000-75,500 range as a good entry point for shorting. Actually, we already anticipated the drop last night/early this morning when Walsh took office. The big move was predicted by Da Mo as early as Wednesday, saying that another major event after Trump's visit to China would be Walsh's appointment, likely triggering a sharp drop. $BTC $ETH $HYPE #加息重回讨论桌：沃什就任，年底加息正式定价

Turning a small capital around has never relied on luck, but on a complete trading system. No matter how small the principal, with discipline in place and strict execution, even small amounts can grow into substantial volume. The core principle is simple: only trade familiar and certain trends, no luck-taking, no impatience, no stubborn holding. When the market is unclear, stay out and observe. Long-term stable profits are never about how many indicators you use. The hardest thing to control in the crypto world is always human nature. Overcoming greed, abandoning impatience, and avoiding random operations are far more important than mastering techniques. #如果当年没卖那枚BTC？ $BTC $ETH $SOL

Four Practical Trading Mnemonics - Simple and Concise Version 1. The 9-Day Rule for Strong Coins For coins with strong momentum, if the price consecutively pulls back for nine days at a high level, it is highly likely that the correction is nearing its end—key opportunity to position. 2. The "Up Two, Down One" Rule If a coin rises for two consecutive days, gradually reduce your position to lock in profits, avoiding greed and overexposure. 3. The Single-Day 7% Surge Pattern If a coin’s price increases by more than 7% in one day, the next day usually shows a surge momentum—don’t rush to sell everything on the same day. 4. Don’t Chase the Top of Long-Term Bull Coins For long-term major bull coins, avoid chasing the initial high; wait for a pullback and stabilization before entering, as chasing highs carries very high risk. $BTC $ETH $HYPE

The impact of the Federal Reserve leadership change combined with its policy direction on the crypto market can be summarized in three aspects: 1. Short-term trend is under pressure Overall market liquidity is tightening, with a lack of incremental off-exchange funds, making it difficult to see a large-scale bull market in the short term. Bitcoin is highly tied to US dollar liquidity; currently, there is no expectation of easing, institutional capital entry willingness is low, and the market will only maintain a back-and-forth battle of existing funds, with a higher probability of a downward consolidation. US Treasury yields continue to rise, making risk-free returns more attractive, causing a large amount of capital to withdraw from the high-risk crypto market. 2. Medium-term outlook is bleak Inflation issues are not fully resolved, and the high interest rate cycle will suppress coin prices for a long time. Energy price volatility and ongoing US debt risks continue to increase inflationary pressure, delaying the Federal Reserve's rate cut schedule. Bitcoin is a zero-yield asset, and holding costs are relatively high in a high interest rate environment, leading to insufficient institutional willingness to increase holdings in the medium to long term, limiting upward price potential. 3. Long-term potential benefits exist Officials are hawkish but clearly oppose central bank digital currencies (CBDCs), indirectly reducing Bitcoin's biggest competitor. Additionally, with officials having backgrounds related to the crypto industry, future Federal Reserve regulation of the crypto sector is likely to become clearer, which will benefit industry compliance and implementation, opening development space for digital assets in the long run. #加息重回讨论桌：沃什就任，年底加息正式定价 $BTC $HYPE

On the daily level, you only need to look at one moving average, called the daily moving average. Hold when above the line, sell when below the line. After buying, if the coin price breaks above the daily moving average and the volume is also above the daily moving average, go all in. The fourth point is selling, which is divided into three details: first, when the wave's increase exceeds **50%**, sell 1/3 of the total position; second, when the overall wave increase exceeds **100%**, sell another 1/3; and when it falls below the daily moving average, clear the entire position. $BTC $ETH

If we all use the daily moving average as our buying basis, and if some unexpected situation causes the price to break below it the next day, then you must sell everything and not hold onto any hope! Although with our coin selection method, the probability of breaking below is very low! We still need to be aware of the risks! After selling, wait until it rises above the daily moving average again, then you can buy back! $BTC $ETH $HYPE

The Great Demon talks about the trend The current overall environment perfectly aligns with your bearish outlook The Federal Reserve's rate cut expectations have been dispelled, the US dollar strengthens, risk assets collectively come under pressure, and Bitcoin is now in a correction trend. The 78,300 level has been tested twice and pushed back, representing a typical double top resistance. At this stage, continuing to be bearish is reasonable, with a high probability of short-term downward continuation. The 72,000 level is a logical ultimate bottom for this correction. The trading principle regarding the three resistance tests is completely reasonable Repeated testing of the same key resistance consumes bearish selling pressure, and the third surge is very likely to break through. Subsequent price action splits into two scenarios: • Short-term rebound back near 78,000: Having shorted twice already, strictly follow the principle to avoid entering again, to mitigate the risk of a false breakout; • Rebound surges and stabilizes above 78,300, reaching the 79,500 resistance: This is a new resistance level, not the same position tested three times, fitting your short conditions, making the risk-reward ratio for shorting here more stable. 3. Simple risk control for subsequent shorting #披萨节狂欢：预测哈希能赢BTC，你敢预测一下吗？ The first short-term downside target is 74,500, followed by your predicted 72,000; If it unexpectedly stabilizes above the 80,000 mark, it means the short-term bearish logic fails and you must stop loss and exit. $BTC $ETH $HYPE

1. Waller's statement directly reversed the Fed's dovish signals; officials who previously leaned toward rate cuts have shifted hawkish, implying rate cuts will be delayed, and in extreme cases, rate hikes could even resume. 2. Ongoing Middle East geopolitical conflicts continue to push up crude oil prices, causing energy inflation to rebound, which directly disrupts the Fed's efforts to cool inflation. 3. Terminal interest rates are very likely to remain in a high range for the long term, with no hope for short-term easing. Market impact: Assets reliant on liquidity expectations such as U.S. stocks, gold, and crypto will face short-term pressure, and the U.S. dollar will strengthen. The global high-interest-rate environment will be prolonged, and funds that previously bet on easing in the second half of the year will most likely need to be repriced. #波动雷达：币种异动观察 $BTC $ETH