分析：当前市场下行挤压风险大于上行轧空，多头资金费压力持续升温
BlockBeats 消息，5 月 28 日，加密分析师 Murphy 表示，当前永续合约市场中，多头每小时向空头支付约 39 万美元资金费，远高于 7 日均值的 22 万美元，表明市场做多情绪明显占优，多头正承担较高持仓成本。其指出，自 5 月 12 日资金费 7 日均值由负转正以来，多头溢价持续扩大，近几日尤为明显。高资金费意味着多头无法长期持续补贴空头，一旦价格无法快速反弹，部分多头可能因成本压力主动平仓。
与此同时，市场未平仓合约（OI）已进入下降通道，说明清算与减仓正在发生。Murphy 认为，若 BTC 再度跌破关键支撑位，可能触发连环强平，形成典型「多头挤压」行情。其表示，目前市场状态与 2026 年 4 月 14 日后的持续上涨阶段形成鲜明对比。当时资金费长期维持负值，空头持续向多头支付费用。
不过，其也指出，极端资金费有时会先触发一轮「收割多头」后，再出现反向轧空。但整体而言，其更倾向于认为当前市场「下行挤压风险大于上行轧空」。Murphy 提醒，当前现货需求与链上活跃度均较低，合约交易难度明显上升，应谨慎参与杠杆博弈；而定投现货或逐步建立长期仓位的投资者则可继续保持策略不变。
Disclaimer: OKX Orbit content is provided for informational purposes only. Learn more
Replies
Related Flash News
Data: Bitcoin mining difficulty increased by 1.72% to 138.96 T
Michael Saylor: The new CFTC regulations will drive the development of the Bitcoin capital market
Data: The total open interest of the Morgan Stanley Bitcoin ETF has surpassed 3,500 BTC
Institutions hold about 3.88 million Bitcoins, accounting for 18.5% of the total supply
BWENEWS AI (No Accuracy Guaranteed): Grayscale Eyes $115 Million HYPE Seed Deal for Hyperliquid ETF
The U.S. CFTC classifies crypto perpetual contracts as offshore futures and issued a non-enforcement statement regarding Coinbase-related business
The US CFTC announced approval for Kalshi to list Bitcoin perpetual contracts
Coinbase announced it received CFTC approval to provide compliant trading channels for crypto derivatives
Blackstone IBIT traded 29 million shares in a single day, valued at approximately $1.29 billion
Bank of America Warning: The current market is showing late-stage bubble characteristics, advising a defensive allocation strategy
