Phyrex.Ni

Today's market is actually quite clear. The main reason for the rise is the indication from the US and Iran that an agreement might be reached. But honestly, this optimism mainly comes from the US side; I haven't seen any related content in Iranian media, so it might just be a unilateral victory announcement from the US or Trump, with Iran not cooperating at all. Although the US stock market has driven Bitcoin up, and both WTI and Brent have declined, there is no information about Iran allowing passage through the Strait of Hormuz. On the contrary, Iran is still setting its own regulations for managing the Strait of Hormuz, which makes it hard for me to be optimistic in advance, as such back-and-forth has happened too many times. Of course, there is no better approach at the moment. So far, my short position on WTI has started to show paper profits, and the liquidation price has consistently stayed above $120. The funding rate is not high now, so I can hold on for two more days to see how it goes. I still believe that even if the Strait of Hormuz is not yet open, it won't take too long. The Federal Reserve's April meeting minutes released today also address this issue. Many Fed officials are starting to consider re-evaluating rate hikes if inflation continues to rise. This is the biggest challenge for Trump. With Walsh in charge, there's no talk of rate cuts; with oil prices this high, rate cuts are impossible unless Trump can completely resolve the Strait of Hormuz issue. Moreover, the inflation caused by the Strait of Hormuz issue is not just affecting the US; most countries worldwide, including China, are impacted. Therefore, pressure on Iran will be comprehensive, and the longer this drags on, the worse it is for Iran. Back to Bitcoin data, I have always maintained that more investors are shifting to long-term holding. Currently, the $BTC price is mainly determined by short-term investors, and what influences short-term investors is the US macro environment, politics, and economy. Although today's meeting minutes are not good, as long as we see talks between the US and Iran and the Strait of Hormuz open, these issues won't matter. #Bitget VIP access is here! Crypto, US stocks, CFDs, global opportunities all in one place

Unconsciously, I've been following this show for almost four years. Although it's not the show I've followed the longest, it should be my favorite American series in the past five years, almost without equal. From the very first episode of the first season, it captivated me. It's now in its fourth and final season. I highly recommend it. The show is called "FROM," produced by MGM+. It's a horror series that really tests human nature. The bloody scenes are rated 18+. Even now, the main storyline is still unclear. Yes, even though the finale is coming up soon, no one really knows what the whole show is about. It's that bizarre, but that's exactly what makes it so captivating. None of the cast are very famous or particularly outstanding in appearance, but their character performances are excellent. The whole series feels like a puzzle-solving game where the characters are chased by monsters, and no one knows what the mystery really is. Highly recommended!! This should be my second most recommended American series. The first one is called "Shameless."

By now, the data for $ETH and bitcoin:native have become very similar in structure. Most retail investors who chase rallies and sell on dips have already exited, leaving mostly BlackRock investors engaging in short-term trading. Even the short-term selling volume from BlackRock investors is decreasing. This situation aligns with the long-term holder and high-net-worth position data we've recently reviewed. More traditional investors have reduced their chase-and-sell behavior in crypto and have shifted towards long-term holding. If their goal is short-term, they likely prefer U.S. stocks. #Bitget means VIP access! Crypto, U.S. stocks, CFDs—global opportunities all in one place

Last time @gokunocool came to Singapore, he introduced me to @Billion_Global, mainly because I am very optimistic about the live streaming + prediction field. To some extent, I even believe this sector is one of the few opportunities currently emerging in the Asian prediction market. The biggest problem in the Asian prediction market right now is not the lack of topics, nor is it entirely due to cultural differences between Europe and Asia. One of the biggest issues is the misalignment in user targeting. I talked about this in an interview with @hananotsorry; prediction markets that fail to see this clearly will struggle to survive. Don’t assume that because Polymarket and Kashi use cryptocurrency, crypto users are the main force in prediction markets. This is a very mistaken view. Most crypto users are here to "defy fate"—if they can’t make several times or even tenfold profits, most won’t be interested. Moreover, prediction markets are, in the long run, a form of financial investment returns, not a "gambling" activity where you can make several or even tens of times your money anytime. For users accustomed to high leverage and contracts, prediction markets are at best entertainment, unless a fully automated "quantitative" solution can be developed. Prediction markets need to break free from the "cryptocurrency" trap; going mainstream is essential. Sticking to the small crypto niche every day makes it difficult to achieve significant growth.

Every time it comes to a critical moment, Trump always TACO

Iran's new Strait of Hormuz management agency has opened an X account and stated that any passing vessels must fully coordinate with the agency; passage without permission will be considered illegal. The United States believes that Iran's earlier proposal to end the conflict does not constitute a substantive improvement and is still insufficient to reach an agreement.