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5.20 $ETH Evening Market Update A quick reminder before we start: stay steady tonight. Late at night, after the US market closes, Nvidia's earnings report will be released. Once that drops, short-term volatility is guaranteed, with likely sharp swings up and down. Many experienced traders have fallen into this trap, letting one or two candlesticks dictate their emotions, chasing highs and panicking on drops, only to end up with bigger losses. #FedMinutes+NvidiaEarnings: Both released on May 20 Alright, let's look at the charts. On the hourly chart, a structure has been forming here. If volume picks up and pushes upward, the resistance at 2144 will likely be broken. Once 2144 is cleared, the next target is the 2156-2195 range. If price can return to this zone, this downtrend can be considered truly halted, leading to an hourly-level rebound, with a potential target near 2232. If it fails to break higher and instead breaks below the lower boundary of the structure and the double support at 2101, then the price will likely test the previous low at 2077, indicating a short-term bearish turn. But honestly, double support isn’t fragile; for the main players to break it, they’d need either huge volume or some news catalyst. It’s not easy to break through directly. There’s already divergence at the hourly level, so there is demand for a bounce. But the weekly chart looks ugly — last week closed with a bearish engulfing pattern right near the 2398 resistance, pressing down hard. If this week’s weekly candle doesn’t recover more than half of the previous bearish candle, from a weekly perspective, the price will likely drop to around 1925 to look for a bottom signal. So right now, the short-term wants to bounce, but the long-term pressure is heavy, causing a tough tug-of-war with back-and-forth moves. · If volume pushes above 2136, go long, targeting 2167-2197. · If volume breaks below 2121, go short; if the 4-hour chart breaks 2109, look down to 2076-2021. · No volume, no chase—there are too many fake breakouts, so keep stop losses tight. Honestly, don’t blindly load up and rush in tonight. Until the market direction is clear, managing your position size is far more practical than guessing the direction. Those who consistently make money never stubbornly hold one direction; they adapt flexibly and adjust when needed. If you can’t watch the market all night, don’t open trades—preserving your capital is the most important. If you really can’t resist, try a very small position with tight stops, and don’t get caught by sudden spikes that make you curse. That’s about it. Brothers, are you planning to watch or try a small position tonight? Are your holdings stable? Let’s chat, and please like and save this post to steadily profit together. $ETH $BTC $SOL

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5.20 $BTC Evening Market Update Honestly, the market sentiment hasn’t recovered at all yet; everyone is still on edge, making the market action particularly tangled. But the more tangled it gets, the more the structure won’t lie. 76000 was tested twice, and the second time it clearly couldn’t be broken down further—doesn’t this look like a small double bottom? The neckline at 77323 has already been broken, so this rebound on the hourly chart is officially underway. Don’t call it a bull run just because it’s rising, but right now the bulls have indeed gained structural initiative. Tonight, Nvidia’s earnings report will be released right after the US stock market closes. Once this news drops, short-term volatility is guaranteed, with likely back-and-forth swings and large fluctuations. #美联储会议纪要+英伟达财报：5月20同日公布 So the 77323 level is everyone’s lifeline tonight. If it can hold firmly at this line or even push higher, the rebound still has momentum. The first target is 78316; once that’s surpassed, the recent downtrend is officially over, and the next target is 79467. Conversely, if 77323 can’t hold and falls back, the market will likely shrink back and play around 76000 again. Multiple tests of 76000 forming a multi-bottom shakeout still leaves hope; but if 76000 is decisively broken, the previous low at 74971 will be tested. The 4-hour chart supports this too, having retraced to the Fibonacci 1.618 extension and even poked a bit lower—this technical area is prone to bounce. The market makers aren’t stupid; without opposing volume in a slow decline, it needs to bounce to tell a story. The price has now pulled back near the box’s midpoint at 77263; whether this 4-hour candle can hold above here is critical. Closing above means looking toward 78748, with decent room to run—don’t get scared and run away after just a small rise. Volume-backed break above 77615 means chasing longs on the right side, targeting 78361-79173, with stop-losses well placed. Volume-backed break below 77070 that fails to recover means chasing shorts, targeting 76103-75295. But what I really want to emphasize tonight isn’t the price levels, it’s the mindset. Many veteran traders have lost money this way—being emotionally driven by one or two candles, chasing highs and selling lows, only to lose more in the end. Nvidia’s earnings is exactly that kind of event; unless you have insider info, it’s just a gamble on size. Don’t fall in love with the market; if it breaks, it breaks; if it moves, it moves. If you’re wrong, stop loss—no big deal. $BTC $ETH $SOL

5.20 $BTC $ETH Midday Market Update Honestly, this market has been driving me a bit crazy. Around 77000, back and forth, grinding for almost a whole day and night, really grinding people's patience. Look at those candlesticks: first three bearish ones formed an evening star, looking like a crash was coming, then reversed with three bullish ones forming a morning star. Doesn't it feel like the market manipulators are just playing with you? At times like this, forget about any patterns—they're all fake. Until there's a breakout, just treat the candlesticks inside as nonsense; let it be, don't take it seriously. If you do, you lose. This is a classic case of weak effort, bulls are faltering. Also, this rebound has hit resistance multiple times above and just can't break through. The market clearly shows you can't get past the resistance above, there's no strength to rise. If you get greedy trying to make a quick profit, you might just get buried. At times like this, survival is the priority. Now we wait. Between 77307 and 76497, until these levels break, all the long and short moves are just pointless struggles. · If you really want to act, wait for a volume-backed surge above 77221, then we can chase longs and watch 78316. Only if it holds above that is it temporarily safe to look higher. · If it crashes with volume below 76497 and can't bounce back, don't hesitate to chase shorts. The next target down is 74971. If the 4-hour level breaks, even lower zones between 75554 and 74570 await. BTC's current pattern is like holding in a fart, the triangle is tightening, and a big move is coming soon. Don't make random moves, hold your money tight and wait for it to pick a direction. If it goes up: · Watch 2123 closely. If it breaks with volume, don't hesitate, chase on the right side. If you're afraid of chasing highs, wait to see if it holds the 2058 pullback; if it does, add more. Don't be stingy with stop losses, set it at 2018. · Once it holds 2123, you can look at the 2156 to 2182 area above, there's good profit potential. · If it dares to spike down near 1971, that's a gift from the sky—place a buy order to catch it. But if it breaks 1936, run quickly, don't risk your capital. If it crashes down: · If 2100 breaks with volume, that's the bear signal. Chase shorts on the right side, don't worry about how deep it falls, take a bite first, but always have a stop loss. · If it bounces up to 2182, you can try a short with a stop loss above 2198. If it breaks that, accept the loss, no shame in it. · Remember, if the 4-hour candle closes below 2093, the momentum is broken. Then watch 2057, 2020, and even 1985 further down. · Not breaking 2125 is fake; the upper line of the triangle is holding it down, so don't expect a breakout. Once it passes, then we can talk about 2158 and 2195. · What if it can't break through? Most likely it will come back to grind between 2076 and 2050. If that gap breaks, 1985 will really come knocking. In short, if it hasn't reached your comfort zone, just watch the show. Don't fight the money; forcing it leads to losses. Remember, volume is key! Breakouts without volume are just scams. In this lousy market, if you're itchy, just watch the show. Money in your pocket won't grow hair. If you're really bored, watch the 15-minute chart and volume to feel what the manipulators are trying to do at the boundaries—better than anything else. $BTC $ETH $SOL

U.S. Treasury yields have surged to 5.2%, a 19-year high. Don’t panic, it’s not because the economy is taking off; it’s because tensions near the Strait of Hormuz are close to sparking conflict, and on top of that, the U.S. has been borrowing recklessly, so the market is starting to charge a “credit discount” fee. #美债利率近19年新高：风险资产全线承压 A ceasefire would provide some relief, but don’t expect a return to the past. If the U.S. and Iran reach an agreement this week, the war premium in oil prices will be squeezed out, and Treasury yields will definitely drop—that’s no surprise. But do you think yields will fall back to the low levels seen at the start of the year? Dream on. The most striking thing this week is that even though oil prices are clearly falling, bonds are still getting hammered—this shows that the shorts aren’t just reacting to the news; they’re betting that the U.S. fiscal situation itself is unreliable. Sixty percent of fund managers expect the 30-year yield to hit 6%, and that’s truly scary. A ceasefire agreement at best just opens a window for some fresh air; once you’re on the upper floors, you can’t come back down. At the start of the year, everyone was betting on rate cuts; now the probability of rate hikes has soared to 80%. It’s not that the market has gone crazy; it’s that people were too naive earlier. Back then, everyone lived in a fairy tale: inflation would fix itself, central banks would eventually ease, and geopolitical risks? They didn’t exist. The scenario of a supply cutoff at the Strait of Hormuz was hardly factored seriously into models. Now that oil prices are stuck in the 80s and 90s and inflation refuses to budge, those same people are scrambling to buy back rate hikes. To put it bluntly, this isn’t a pricing failure; it’s a collective admission of error. Gold and Bitcoin are both falling, but for different reasons. Gold is the honest player getting bullied—rates are so high, who wants to hold a lump of non-yielding metal? The logic is crystal clear. Bitcoin is being dragged down; institutions are treating it like a tech stock, selling to cover margin calls, which has nothing to do with safe-haven demand. Their 30-day correlation has already dropped into negative territory; they’re going their separate ways. When the bull market had plenty of liquidity, they floated together; when liquidity dries up, it’s obvious who’s swimming naked. The term “digital gold” was just a drunken remark during the bull market; now with this cold splash of high rates, the hangover is here. Bitcoin is essentially a leveraged risk appetite thermometer—don’t force it into the safe-haven category. High interest rates act like a mirror that exposes all the flashy narratives for what they really are. $BTC $XAU $BZ

The US-Iran drama is even more daring than a TV show 🍿 It increasingly feels like a "large-scale reality show." #DelayedStrikeNotCeasefire: The US-Iran negotiation window can close at any time Think about it, Trump's line "I was an hour away from ordering a strike" sounds exactly like the live stream tactic of shouting "only three items left in stock." Afterward, several officials privately leaked that the final decision was never actually reached that day. The so-called "life-or-death hour" seems more like a reshot scene to push the plot to a climax. Only the intermediaries like Saudi Arabia and the UAE, who helped relay messages, suffered—they risked their faces negotiating, only to find out they might have just been extras in the script. If one day Trump really wants to strike, and the whole world thinks it's just a rerun, that will be a real problem. More absurd than this script is Wall Street. Minutes before the president tweeted to call off the war, someone was able to precisely dump tens of billions of dollars in short positions. The timing was ridiculously accurate, practically playing with an open hand. Regulators must be overwhelmed now because traditional insider trading laws cover company financial leaks, but this leak concerns the US military's decision to go to war or not. This level is completely different. No wonder some lawmakers openly criticized it, saying it turns state secrets into an ATM. Ordinary people are still praying for world peace, while some are arbitraging by the second—this scene is the height of irony. This current "neither war nor peace" deadlock is basically a blind sprint. Iran verbally says it’s willing to negotiate, but their centrifuges haven’t stopped; the enriched uranium is just one step away from the nuclear bomb threshold. Every time the US calls off a strike, it’s like "thanks for the development time, buddy" to them. On the US side, they’re genuinely afraid of getting stuck in a quagmire if they strike, but afraid of losing face if they don’t, so they keep this ambiguous stance to at least preserve the "tough guy" image. The most tormented are the Gulf countries—they’d be the first to get hit by missiles if war breaks out, but if there’s no war, they fear Iran’s growing power, so they have to appease both sides. So you see, in this drama, delay is a strategic opportunity for Iran and a strange form of dignity for the US. But for us spectators and the small countries caught in the middle, it’s like a sword hanging overhead, uncertain when it will fall. This ongoing uncertainty is the most mentally exhausting internal struggle. $BTC $ETH $BZ

Honestly, my first reaction to Karpathy switching jobs was also "WTF," but after thinking about it, isn't it just a top engineer moving to a different position? #在OKX交易美股：AI双雄押哪边？ Pre-training nowadays is on a massive scale, starting with tens of thousands of GPUs, data pipelines, reinforcement learning, alignment—the whole package. It's long past the era when one person changing a few lines of code could flip the table. He went to Anthropic, which at most means the team might avoid some detours and be a bit more efficient. If you say he alone will make Claude 4 crush GPT-5, that's just sci-fi. OpenAI losing a marquee figure is obviously a blow to their image, but their user base and commercial infrastructure keep running smoothly, so it won't hurt them fundamentally in the short term. This is a juicy piece of gossip, but betting heavily on a reversal might keep me up at night. The valuation inversion is even more interesting. Anthropic has far fewer users, yet its valuation is higher than OpenAI's. Simply put, the market is betting on one thing—OpenAI will continue to self-sabotage. Think about it: Anthropic is tied to Amazon, follows a safe and compliant path, avoids internal power struggles and headlines, and basically says, "I'm low-maintenance, come pay me protection fees." The market believes this well-behaved kid is more valuable in the enterprise paid market, where each client might pay much more than OpenAI's massive user base that is still climbing the monetization curve. But in the next 12 months, the only thing that can prove this logic wrong is if GPT-5 is truly impressive. If GPT-5 launches and its reasoning ability widens the gap again, ChatGPT Enterprise revenue takes off, and maybe even IPO news drops, the market will immediately flip and start competing over whose model is smarter rather than safer. Enterprise clients are very pragmatic—whoever has the better model gets the business. Then Anthropic's 900 billion valuation will look a bit inflated. Conversely, if GPT-5 is delayed or just mediocre, and Claude 4 quietly signs deals through AWS channels, the safety flywheel story can continue. So the premium the market is giving Anthropic now is essentially a bet that OpenAI will keep playing internal politics. If OpenAI suddenly stops messing around and pulls out the real deal, that premium will have to be paid back. I've got some skin in both sides but have been closely watching GPT-5 lately—this is the real game-changer coming up. $OPENAI $ANTHROPIC