Rocky_BTC

There's not much to say about Nvidia's earnings report; it's like squeezing toothpaste—data is just incremental. There's a feeling that market investors have psychologically normalized Nvidia's earnings beating expectations. If it doesn't significantly exceed expectations, they basically won't buy it! That said, for a company of this scale, significantly exceeding expectations is inherently very difficult. The good news is the $80 billion buyback plus increased dividends, which serves as some consolation for shareholders! What interests me most is Jensen Huang mentioning the Q3 launch of Vera Rubin mass production and shipment. I think this is Nvidia's key trump card to break through the $10 trillion mark. Currently, many institutions have raised Nvidia's target price from $260 to over $300. Today, Morgan Stanley also released a research report worth noting. It compares the production costs of two generations of Nvidia products, where GB300 represents the current flagship under Nvidia's Blackwell architecture, and VR200 is the latest Q3 mass-produced Vera Rubin architecture flagship rack solution. The most eye-catching material price increase is in memory chips. A VR200 rack costs $7.8 million, with memory accounting for $2 million, or 26% of total cost, which is a 435% increase compared to the previous generation GB300. Those who understand know that memory chips can still be speculated on for at least another year. I continue to hold Micron Technology (#MU), Samsung, and SK Hynix. Regarding Korea, I mainly hold #EWY Korea Index ETF and the Hong Kong stock 07709 for 2x leveraged long on SK Hynix. 🧐

Duan Yongping's Q1 2026 holdings are out! This time the portfolio adjustment is quite aggressive, so let's break it down and discuss, especially Duan's options strategy, which is really worth learning.🧐 Data as of March 31, 2026, total market value about $20 billion. Let's see what Duan did this quarter. 📊 First, the biggest changes: • Apple: Slashed from 50.30% to 36.72%, a reduction of 13.6 percentage points! Market value $7.35 billion, still the largest holding. • Berkshire Hathaway: Slightly increased from 20.63% to 21.91%, market value $4.38 billion, a steady ballast. • Nvidia: Surged from 7.72% to 12.07%, increased by 4.35 percentage points! Market value $2.41 billion, this is a major highlight. • Pinduoduo: Increased from 7.48% to 10.09%, continuing to add. Market value $2.02 billion. • Google: Increased from 3.33% to 5.31%, steadily adding. Market value $1.06 billion. • Tesla: New position from 0 to 6.34%! Market value $1.27 billion, brand new holding. • Circle: New position from 0 to 0.1%! Market value $19.08 million, brand new holding. 🚨 Full exits and significant reductions: • Alibaba: Fully exited, from 2.15% to 0%. • TSMC: Cut from 2.13% to 0.26%, basically exited. • ASML: From 0.06% to zero. • Corewave, Microsoft, and others also saw varying degrees of reduction. 🧐 Interpretation of Duan's investment style and strategy: 1️⃣ Mastering options strategy to the extreme Duan's greatest skill isn't just stock holdings, but options strategy. Why did he reduce Apple so much? It's not that he is bearish, but he loves selling Covered Calls. Apple is a quality stock with steady annual growth; Duan continuously sells out-of-the-money call options to earn premiums. If the stock rises, it gets called away at a high price; if it doesn't, he still earns the premium. Look, Apple dropped from 50% to 37%, mostly because calls were exercised at high prices. I estimate Duan earns tens of millions of dollars annually from option premiums alone—something most of us could never earn in a lifetime. Why the big increase in Nvidia? I guess it's all from selling puts to buy back shares. Duan is bullish on Nvidia's long-term value but avoids chasing highs. So he sells out-of-the-money puts, waiting for market pullbacks. If it pulls back, he buys at a low price; if not, he still earns the premium. Think about it: Nvidia rose from 7.7% to 12%, the 4+ percentage point increase came from put sales, with costs well below market price, plus premium income, and later selling covered calls. This combo must yield an incredible return. Tesla is similar, building from 0% to 6.3%, likely also through selling puts. Tesla is a laggard in M7; Duan probably sees a margin of safety and sells puts to acquire shares. 2️⃣ Concentrated holdings + dynamic rebalancing Duan's portfolio is highly concentrated, with the top five holdings over 86%: • Apple 36.72% • Berkshire Hathaway 21.91% • Nvidia 12.07% • Pinduoduo 10.09% • Tesla 6.34% This concentration shows Duan's extreme confidence in his judgments. But he doesn't hold rigidly; he adjusts dynamically. When Apple rises too much, he reduces via covered calls; for promising stocks like Nvidia and Google, he keeps adding. This is a classic value investing plus dynamic rebalancing strategy. 3️⃣ Firmly bullish on tech giants but selective Duan's major holdings are all tech giants or tech-related: • Apple: Consumer electronics + ecosystem • Nvidia: AI computing power • Google: Search + AI • Tesla: Electric vehicles + AI robotics • Berkshire Hathaway: Diversified allocation But note, Microsoft was cut from 2.38% to 1.88%, indicating some reservation about Microsoft's AI prospects. Alibaba was fully exited, and TSMC significantly reduced, showing Duan is less optimistic about Chinese stocks and semiconductor equipment. 4️⃣ Value investing + disciplined mindset Pinduoduo increased from 7.48% to 10.09%, Duan continues to add. Although Pinduoduo's stock performance has been average in recent years, Duan firmly believes in its long-term value and holds on. This is classic value investing—no chasing highs or panic selling, just holding quality companies. Berkshire Hathaway is the same, steady at 21.91%. Buffett's Berkshire is Duan's ballast stone, always there regardless of market fluctuations. 5️⃣ Exiting Chinese stocks, all-in on US stocks Exiting Alibaba and cutting TSMC significantly shows Duan's lack of confidence in Chinese stocks and non-US markets. His portfolio is basically all US stocks, reflecting strong confidence in US tech dominance and dollar assets. 💡 Core logic of Duan's strategy: • High Sharpe ratio: Using options strategies to significantly boost returns without increasing risk. Selling covered calls and puts lowers holding costs, earns premiums, and maintains composure during market volatility. This strategy's Sharpe ratio is definitely top-tier. • Invincible stance: Duan holds only quality companies with long-term upward trends. Options strategies are just icing on the cake; even without options, long-term holding is profitable. With options, returns and risk control improve further. • Suitable for large capital: This strategy is especially fit for managing large funds. Small funds may lack flexibility, but large funds can use options for more efficient capital use and risk management. 🎯 Lessons and references for us: • Options are not gambling but risk management tools. Duan's options strategy is systematic income enhancement and risk control, not speculation. • Concentrated holdings + dynamic rebalancing. Don't over-diversify; focus on your best ideas but adjust dynamically to keep portfolio balanced. • Value investing + long-termism. Duan's holdings are all quality companies held long-term, no chasing or panic selling. • High Beta stocks suit options strategies. High volatility stocks like Nvidia and Tesla are perfect for options, generating substantial premium income. Summary: Duan Yongping's Q1 2026 portfolio adjustment centers on enhancing returns and dynamic rebalancing through options strategies. Reduced Apple (covered calls exercised), significantly increased Nvidia (selling puts to buy), newly built Tesla (selling puts to buy), exited Chinese stocks (Alibaba, TSMC), and continued adding Pinduoduo and Google. The essence of this strategy is using options to lower costs, boost returns, manage risk, while holding quality companies long-term. This is truly smart money management. A reminder to fans: Duan's 13F only discloses US stock holdings, not Hong Kong or A-shares, so we only see the tip of the iceberg. But this tip is already exciting and worth studying carefully.🙏 DYOR, options carry risks, invest cautiously!🧐

Recently, after analyzing various 13F fund reports, most are cautious about Q2. On one hand, US Treasury yields have surged recently, combined with the Federal Reserve chair transition, unclear US-Iran situation, oil prices staying above $100, and finally the century IPO of SpaceX going public. On a personal operational level, I've recently taken some profits from US stocks, waiting for a better price to buy back! Funds are just sitting idle, but I recently found that the #OKX USDG stablecoin yield is quite good. VIPs can get up to 4.1%, with real-time redemption. If you do a loop loan, the highest can reach 9.1% (not highly recommended), with weekly interest payments—really attractive! Also, I've been playing with OKX Dual Currency Win recently. Interestingly, for the Dual Currency Win USDG and USDT trading pairs, at the same BTC price of 74,000, the USDT pair yield is 18.05%, while the USDG pair yield is 20.6%, surprisingly 2% higher, which is also very attractive (see images 3 and 4 below)! In a bear market, you must heed Buffett's advice and make every penny work! 🧐 If there are any other high-yield stablecoin strategies, feel free to discuss in the comments! 🙏 Thanks here to @Jiajia_OKX for the tip 🙏 @okxchinese

New US stock god, Leopold's Situational Awareness LP fund, has completely changed its holdings in Q1 2026 (see Figure 1)! 🧐 I double-checked several times, thinking I misread it. The holdings in Figure 1 really dropped my jaw, so scared that I quickly liquidated nearly half of my AI US stock holdings tonight! You should know this timing is very peculiar. First, the 10-year US Treasury yield recently surged ridiculously, directly to 4.62%. Combined with Nvidia's heavy earnings report announcement after Wednesday's close, the large volume of put options sold short at this timing feels like something big is about to happen! Remember, Leopold was heavily invested in AI infrastructure in Q4 last year, and now he has fully switched to a short-selling mode. What exactly did this guy see? 🥸 🎯 Let's first look at the top holdings changes, the shock level is comparable to an earthquake: 📊 Q1 2026 holdings (as of March 31): • SMH PUT (short semiconductor ETF) - 14.94%, market value $2.04 billion • NVDA PUT (short Nvidia) - 11.47%, market value $1.57 billion • ORCL PUT (short Oracle) - 7.84%, market value $1.07 billion • AVGO PUT (short Broadcom) - 7.36%, market value $1 billion • AMD PUT (short AMD) - 7.09%, market value $970 million You read that right, the top five holdings are all PUT options. Honestly, I confirmed this data at least five times! What does this mean? Leopold is using real money to short the entire tech and semiconductor sectors. (It could also be a combination options hedge strategy to protect gains, but overall puts far exceed calls.) 🎯 Core logic change: Q4 2025 holdings logic: • Heavy in AI infrastructure: Bloom Energy (power), CoreWeave (compute), Lumentum (optical communication) • Core view: AI development bottleneck is power and compute infrastructure, not chips • Strategy: liquidate Nvidia, TSMC and other chip stocks, shift to upstream energy and data centers Now Q1 2026 holdings logic: • Fully short tech giants and semiconductors! • Short list: #SMH, #NVDA, #ORCL, #AVGO, #AMD, #MU, #TSM, #ASML, #INTC • Meanwhile keep some CALL options for hedging: #MU, #SNDK, #TSM CALLs This is a 180-degree turnaround! 🧐 My interpretation and thoughts: Leopold's move sends three core signals: 1️⃣ AI bubble theory? He may believe current AI stock valuations have severely overextended future expectations. Although he still believes AGI will be realized in 2027-28, the market has already priced in this expectation early. Look at Nvidia, AMD, Broadcom's current P/E ratios. The market expects perpetual growth, but Leopold may have spotted a turning point. 2️⃣ Shift from infrastructure to shorting chips Last Q4 his logic was: chips are not the bottleneck, power is. So he sold chip stocks and bought energy. Now he goes further: not only are chips not the bottleneck, chip stocks are seriously overvalued! So he shorts them directly. But he still holds BE (Bloom Energy) 6.42%, IREN (Bitcoin miner turned AI compute) 2.93%, CORZ (Core Scientific) 2.84%—energy and compute infrastructure assets. This shows his long-term optimism on AI infrastructure remains unchanged, but he thinks the market pricing of chip stocks is crazy. 3️⃣ Hedge or real short? Note a detail: while shorting, he keeps some CALL options: • MU CALL - 3.09% • SNDK CALL - 2.84% • TSM CALL - 2.59% This is a straddle options strategy, buying both PUT and CALL. He is betting on volatility! Whether up or down, as long as the movement is large enough, this strategy profits. But the PUT position is clearly much larger than CALL, indicating a bearish bias. 📉 Risks and controversies: Leopold's move carries huge risks: • Time risk: options expire, if the market doesn't drop sharply before expiration, he loses all premium • Counterparty risk: he shorts the world's best tech companies, whose fundamentals remain strong • Market sentiment risk: AI hype continues, and the Trump administration is pushing AI development hard, shorting tech stocks is going against the trend But Leopold is smart with strong situational awareness. I believe he sees things ordinary people can't. Possible triggers: • SpaceX's century IPO, listing mid-June, will suck liquidity from the market • AI capital expenditure peak (Microsoft, Google, Meta's AI investment growth may slow) • Geopolitical risks (US-China tech war escalation, semiconductor supply chain restructuring) • Macro issues (recent US bond yields surge, investment banks predict no Fed rate cuts this year, possibly hikes, raising costs for capital-intensive AI) 🎯 What should ordinary investors do? Don't blindly follow! Leopold manages a hedge fund with complex options strategies and professional risk control teams. Ordinary investors lack these capabilities and resources. But you can learn from his thinking: • Stay skeptical: don't blindly believe the "AI always goes up" narrative. Every asset has cycles, even the best companies can be overvalued. • Watch industry chain changes: from chips to energy infrastructure, AI's industry chain is structurally changing. Where the bottleneck is, there lies opportunity. • Hedge risks well: if heavily invested in tech stocks, consider trimming some on rallies or allocate gold, US bonds, cash as safe havens. • Think long-term, act short-term: bullish on AI long-term, but short-term may see big corrections. Set stop profits and losses, don't hold stubbornly. My personal view: Leopold's move may be painful short-term (1-3 months). If tech stocks keep rising, his PUTs will quickly lose value. But from a 6-12 month perspective, he might be right. The market's optimism on AI is at an extreme. Any negative news (e.g., a tech giant's AI investment returns below expectations or AI safety incidents) could trigger a chain reaction. And don't forget, this guy had a +47% return in H1 2025, far outperforming the S&P 500's +6%. He has this track record, so we should take his judgment seriously. In summary: Situational Awareness LP's Q1 2026 holdings core signals: • Fully short tech and semiconductors (7 of top 10 are PUTs) • Retain AI infrastructure (energy, compute, data centers) • Use options strategies to hedge risk, betting on big market volatility • Logic upgraded from "chips not bottleneck" to "chip stocks seriously overvalued" — an extremely aggressive and bold shift. The next 2-3 months will be the key period to test Leopold's judgment. Let's wait and see! 🧐

Held for quite a while, recommended to everyone I meet, finally reached 400, breaking 500 billion market cap is just around the corner! #Zhaoyi Innovation Playing less and less in A-shares, in the new energy era I only hold Ning Wang for the long term, in the AI era, only hold SMIC and Zhaoyi for the long term! Still recommend everyone to trade US stocks, US stocks are the world's stocks, from a game theory perspective, they have some advantages. The smart people and quant traders in A-shares are too strong, it's too difficult! 🧐

Outdoor camping is really addictive, and it's time to spoil the family again this weekend! 🥸 The 10-year US Treasury yield has broken the warning line, reaching 4.6%. It's time to get on board with risk asset corrections and spend extra time with family and enjoy nature this weekend! 🧐

BlackRock is ready to invest $5-10 billion in #SpaceX! Feels like after the IPO it will stabilize at 2 trillion, and in the next 5 years push towards 10 trillion, definitely! 🥸 I'm planning to buy a little on various Pre-IPO platforms, which one is the cheapest right now?! 🧐