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Three major events stacking up! BTC stabilizes at 78000, here’s the market outlook Honestly, today’s market is really not simple. Many people only see BTC hovering at 78000 with no movement, thinking it’s just boring consolidation. But anyone who understands macro trends knows that all three main external threads are currently shifting. The rhythm of the upcoming market’s rise and fall is basically locked by these events.🔥 🌍 Middle East situation: Appears to ease, but actually more chaotic US-Iran negotiations have finally made substantial progress. The mediators have agreed on a 30-day letter of intent, and the market once thought geopolitical risks would cool down. But Iran is not following the usual script at all. They immediately established a Strait Management Authority, officially claiming jurisdiction over the Strait of Hormuz.✨ On the surface, they talk peace, but in reality, they tightly hold the global energy lifeline. Geopolitical uncertainty hasn’t diminished; instead, it hides risks of repeated turmoil. This is the core safe-haven support preventing BTC from falling recently. 🚀 Major institutional news: SpaceX’s holdings fully revealed The S-1 filing this time really surprised me. SpaceX holds 18,712 BTC, valued at 145 million USD. Top-tier giants quietly accumulating coins is not short-term speculation, but long-term recognition. But everyone should focus on one time window⏰ June 11 IPO launch The most realistic issue with a big IPO is market liquidity drain. On one hand, institutional holdings provide strong support, On the other, short-term pressure from tightening liquidity. Upcoming consolidation and shakeout are basically a done deal. 🤖 AI×Crypto main theme is fully revived This year’s most stable narrative remains AI+crypto synergy. Anthropic finally achieved its first quarterly profit. Q2 revenue hit 10.9 billion USD, a complete fundamental turnaround. At the same time, monthly 1.25 billion computing power orders keep coming in.💥 AI computing power, on-chain applications, and crypto ecosystems empower each other. This narrative is not a short-term hype, It’s the core capital theme for the next half year. With these three signals combined, here’s a clear summary for everyone: Geopolitical safe-haven support, giant institutional holdings locking the bottom, AI narrative lifting the top Currently, 78000 is a solid strong support. No need to be pessimistic, nor blindly chase highs. Short-term IPO liquidity pressure will cause repeated shakeouts. Overall trend remains consolidation with a bullish bias. Remember: buy dips confidently, don’t overcommit chasing highs recklessly. Recently many retail investors either missed out or can’t hold through the volatility. Actually, the market is never difficult, The difficulty lies in not understanding macro signals and blindly guessing by looking only at candlesticks. Are you currently holding to wait for gains, or waiting for a pullback opportunity? $BTC $ETH $SOL #SpaceX上市倒计时：纳指新规下的抢跑机会

5.20 $ETH Evening Market Update A quick reminder before we start: stay steady tonight. Late at night, after the US market closes, Nvidia's earnings report will be released. Once that drops, short-term volatility is guaranteed, with likely sharp swings up and down. Many experienced traders have fallen into this trap, letting one or two candlesticks dictate their emotions, chasing highs and panicking on drops, only to end up with bigger losses. #FedMinutes+NvidiaEarnings: Both released on May 20 Alright, let's look at the charts. On the hourly chart, a structure has been forming here. If volume picks up and pushes upward, the resistance at 2144 will likely be broken. Once 2144 is cleared, the next target is the 2156-2195 range. If price can return to this zone, this downtrend can be considered truly halted, leading to an hourly-level rebound, with a potential target near 2232. If it fails to break higher and instead breaks below the lower boundary of the structure and the double support at 2101, then the price will likely test the previous low at 2077, indicating a short-term bearish turn. But honestly, double support isn’t fragile; for the main players to break it, they’d need either huge volume or some news catalyst. It’s not easy to break through directly. There’s already divergence at the hourly level, so there is demand for a bounce. But the weekly chart looks ugly — last week closed with a bearish engulfing pattern right near the 2398 resistance, pressing down hard. If this week’s weekly candle doesn’t recover more than half of the previous bearish candle, from a weekly perspective, the price will likely drop to around 1925 to look for a bottom signal. So right now, the short-term wants to bounce, but the long-term pressure is heavy, causing a tough tug-of-war with back-and-forth moves. · If volume pushes above 2136, go long, targeting 2167-2197. · If volume breaks below 2121, go short; if the 4-hour chart breaks 2109, look down to 2076-2021. · No volume, no chase—there are too many fake breakouts, so keep stop losses tight. Honestly, don’t blindly load up and rush in tonight. Until the market direction is clear, managing your position size is far more practical than guessing the direction. Those who consistently make money never stubbornly hold one direction; they adapt flexibly and adjust when needed. If you can’t watch the market all night, don’t open trades—preserving your capital is the most important. If you really can’t resist, try a very small position with tight stops, and don’t get caught by sudden spikes that make you curse. That’s about it. Brothers, are you planning to watch or try a small position tonight? Are your holdings stable? Let’s chat, and please like and save this post to steadily profit together. $ETH $BTC $SOL

5.20 $BTC Evening Market Update Honestly, the market sentiment hasn’t recovered at all yet; everyone is still on edge, making the market action particularly tangled. But the more tangled it gets, the more the structure won’t lie. 76000 was tested twice, and the second time it clearly couldn’t be broken down further—doesn’t this look like a small double bottom? The neckline at 77323 has already been broken, so this rebound on the hourly chart is officially underway. Don’t call it a bull run just because it’s rising, but right now the bulls have indeed gained structural initiative. Tonight, Nvidia’s earnings report will be released right after the US stock market closes. Once this news drops, short-term volatility is guaranteed, with likely back-and-forth swings and large fluctuations. #美联储会议纪要+英伟达财报：5月20同日公布 So the 77323 level is everyone’s lifeline tonight. If it can hold firmly at this line or even push higher, the rebound still has momentum. The first target is 78316; once that’s surpassed, the recent downtrend is officially over, and the next target is 79467. Conversely, if 77323 can’t hold and falls back, the market will likely shrink back and play around 76000 again. Multiple tests of 76000 forming a multi-bottom shakeout still leaves hope; but if 76000 is decisively broken, the previous low at 74971 will be tested. The 4-hour chart supports this too, having retraced to the Fibonacci 1.618 extension and even poked a bit lower—this technical area is prone to bounce. The market makers aren’t stupid; without opposing volume in a slow decline, it needs to bounce to tell a story. The price has now pulled back near the box’s midpoint at 77263; whether this 4-hour candle can hold above here is critical. Closing above means looking toward 78748, with decent room to run—don’t get scared and run away after just a small rise. Volume-backed break above 77615 means chasing longs on the right side, targeting 78361-79173, with stop-losses well placed. Volume-backed break below 77070 that fails to recover means chasing shorts, targeting 76103-75295. But what I really want to emphasize tonight isn’t the price levels, it’s the mindset. Many veteran traders have lost money this way—being emotionally driven by one or two candles, chasing highs and selling lows, only to lose more in the end. Nvidia’s earnings is exactly that kind of event; unless you have insider info, it’s just a gamble on size. Don’t fall in love with the market; if it breaks, it breaks; if it moves, it moves. If you’re wrong, stop loss—no big deal. $BTC $ETH $SOL

5.20 $BTC $ETH Midday Market Update Honestly, this market has been driving me a bit crazy. Around 77000, back and forth, grinding for almost a whole day and night, really grinding people's patience. Look at those candlesticks: first three bearish ones formed an evening star, looking like a crash was coming, then reversed with three bullish ones forming a morning star. Doesn't it feel like the market manipulators are just playing with you? At times like this, forget about any patterns—they're all fake. Until there's a breakout, just treat the candlesticks inside as nonsense; let it be, don't take it seriously. If you do, you lose. This is a classic case of weak effort, bulls are faltering. Also, this rebound has hit resistance multiple times above and just can't break through. The market clearly shows you can't get past the resistance above, there's no strength to rise. If you get greedy trying to make a quick profit, you might just get buried. At times like this, survival is the priority. Now we wait. Between 77307 and 76497, until these levels break, all the long and short moves are just pointless struggles. · If you really want to act, wait for a volume-backed surge above 77221, then we can chase longs and watch 78316. Only if it holds above that is it temporarily safe to look higher. · If it crashes with volume below 76497 and can't bounce back, don't hesitate to chase shorts. The next target down is 74971. If the 4-hour level breaks, even lower zones between 75554 and 74570 await. BTC's current pattern is like holding in a fart, the triangle is tightening, and a big move is coming soon. Don't make random moves, hold your money tight and wait for it to pick a direction. If it goes up: · Watch 2123 closely. If it breaks with volume, don't hesitate, chase on the right side. If you're afraid of chasing highs, wait to see if it holds the 2058 pullback; if it does, add more. Don't be stingy with stop losses, set it at 2018. · Once it holds 2123, you can look at the 2156 to 2182 area above, there's good profit potential. · If it dares to spike down near 1971, that's a gift from the sky—place a buy order to catch it. But if it breaks 1936, run quickly, don't risk your capital. If it crashes down: · If 2100 breaks with volume, that's the bear signal. Chase shorts on the right side, don't worry about how deep it falls, take a bite first, but always have a stop loss. · If it bounces up to 2182, you can try a short with a stop loss above 2198. If it breaks that, accept the loss, no shame in it. · Remember, if the 4-hour candle closes below 2093, the momentum is broken. Then watch 2057, 2020, and even 1985 further down. · Not breaking 2125 is fake; the upper line of the triangle is holding it down, so don't expect a breakout. Once it passes, then we can talk about 2158 and 2195. · What if it can't break through? Most likely it will come back to grind between 2076 and 2050. If that gap breaks, 1985 will really come knocking. In short, if it hasn't reached your comfort zone, just watch the show. Don't fight the money; forcing it leads to losses. Remember, volume is key! Breakouts without volume are just scams. In this lousy market, if you're itchy, just watch the show. Money in your pocket won't grow hair. If you're really bored, watch the 15-minute chart and volume to feel what the manipulators are trying to do at the boundaries—better than anything else. $BTC $ETH $SOL

U.S. Treasury yields have surged to 5.2%, a 19-year high. Don’t panic, it’s not because the economy is taking off; it’s because tensions near the Strait of Hormuz are close to sparking conflict, and on top of that, the U.S. has been borrowing recklessly, so the market is starting to charge a “credit discount” fee. #美债利率近19年新高：风险资产全线承压 A ceasefire would provide some relief, but don’t expect a return to the past. If the U.S. and Iran reach an agreement this week, the war premium in oil prices will be squeezed out, and Treasury yields will definitely drop—that’s no surprise. But do you think yields will fall back to the low levels seen at the start of the year? Dream on. The most striking thing this week is that even though oil prices are clearly falling, bonds are still getting hammered—this shows that the shorts aren’t just reacting to the news; they’re betting that the U.S. fiscal situation itself is unreliable. Sixty percent of fund managers expect the 30-year yield to hit 6%, and that’s truly scary. A ceasefire agreement at best just opens a window for some fresh air; once you’re on the upper floors, you can’t come back down. At the start of the year, everyone was betting on rate cuts; now the probability of rate hikes has soared to 80%. It’s not that the market has gone crazy; it’s that people were too naive earlier. Back then, everyone lived in a fairy tale: inflation would fix itself, central banks would eventually ease, and geopolitical risks? They didn’t exist. The scenario of a supply cutoff at the Strait of Hormuz was hardly factored seriously into models. Now that oil prices are stuck in the 80s and 90s and inflation refuses to budge, those same people are scrambling to buy back rate hikes. To put it bluntly, this isn’t a pricing failure; it’s a collective admission of error. Gold and Bitcoin are both falling, but for different reasons. Gold is the honest player getting bullied—rates are so high, who wants to hold a lump of non-yielding metal? The logic is crystal clear. Bitcoin is being dragged down; institutions are treating it like a tech stock, selling to cover margin calls, which has nothing to do with safe-haven demand. Their 30-day correlation has already dropped into negative territory; they’re going their separate ways. When the bull market had plenty of liquidity, they floated together; when liquidity dries up, it’s obvious who’s swimming naked. The term “digital gold” was just a drunken remark during the bull market; now with this cold splash of high rates, the hangover is here. Bitcoin is essentially a leveraged risk appetite thermometer—don’t force it into the safe-haven category. High interest rates act like a mirror that exposes all the flashy narratives for what they really are. $BTC $XAU $BZ